Texas Tech freshman quarterback Behren Morton has put forth two quality games in October, including last week’s 48-10 blowout victory against West Virginia. While Baylor might retain some of the talent from last year’s amazing season, which ended with a Sugar Bowl victory, the Bears are clearly not of the same caliber. Take the Red Raiders to ride the backing of their home crowd and edge their Big 12 opponent.

Last week, the Bears broke a two-game losing streak with an uneven performance against upstart Kansas. They piled up 437 yards of total offense but turned the ball over three times and allowed two 90-plus yard drives to the Jayhawks in the fourth quarter to tighten the game. Even so, if Baylor limits the mistakes it should have an edge in physicality against a finesse Texas Tech club that could be in a flat spot after the Red Raiders made easy work of West Virginia last week.

Baylor owns the better offensive line (No. 26 vs. No. 92) and defensive line (No. 24 vs. No. 35) at Football Outsiders. The Bears own a +1.3 net yards per play differential, while Texas Tech is +0.5 this season. Baylor is ranked No. 66 (45.1%) in third-down efficiency, while Texas Tech is ranked No. 182 (36.2%). The Red Raiders are 0-6 straight-up off a win versus a conference rival and 0-5-1 against the spread after scoring 40-plus points. Baylor is 9-4 ATS as an underdog over the past three seasons. Texas Tech has a big revenge game at TCU next week. Take the road underdog.