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I'm very tempted to sprinkle a little on the Kansas moneyline (+260), but for now I'll just take the points. I realize Jayhawks dual-threat QB Jalon Daniels is out, but backup Jason Bean played well in relief of Daniels last week and will have an entire week to practice with the first team. He almost led Kansas to an upset over Oklahoma last year. Kansas should be able to move the ball against a struggling Sooners defense that has been shredded the past three weeks and will still be without key playmaker Billy Bowman. Oklahoma QB Dillon Gabriel will be back, but the Sooners offense wasn't looking great before he got hurt at TCU. Kansas covers.
We have Kansas losing by just six points, and that’s assuming that Dillon Gabriel is fully healthy. The Jayhawks have lost 17 straight to Oklahoma, and I think they are going to be fired up this game knowing that they have their best shot at beating the Sooners in a long time. Kansas QB Jason Bean looked very good last week after Jalon Daniels went down with an injury, and I think he should have success against an Oklahoma defense that has been exposed over the last few weeks.
The Kansas Jayhawks have been the biggest surprise this season. Quarterback Jalon Daniels has been a big part of their success but he hasn't carried them. The Jayhawks have an elite rushing attack as they rank 17th in FBS in rush YPG and 7th in FBS in yards per rush. This is the worst the Oklahoma Sooners have been in a while. They are coming off of a 49-0 beatdown at the hands of the Texas Longhorns. They should not be favored by this many points. The Jayhawks should be able to run all over this terrible Sooners rush defense. Their rush defense ranks bottom 10 in FBS in opp rush YPG. This is way too many points. Roll with the Jayhawks.
This line is an egregious overreaction to the return of Dillon Gabriel and absence of Jalon Daniels. There was little drop-off in Kansas' QB production with Jason Bean last week against TCU. Meanwhile, while Gabriel is a huge upgrade over Oklahoma's other QB options, the Sooners are still seriously depleted on the defensive end. The Sooners shouldn't be a 9-point favorite over anybody in the Big 12 right now, let alone the second-best offense in the league.
Kansas covered +38 in a 35-23 loss to Oklahoma last season that was much closer than the score indicates. The Jayhawks finished the season 2-10 but later started an active 8-0-1 ATS streak. Jayhawks QB Jalen Daniels is likely to miss (shoulder) the game but backup Jason Bean is only a 2-point drop-off. Bean was the QB against Oklahoma last season. Back Kansas to keep covering the number.
Did I miss a memo? Is this still the same Oklahoma team that has given up an average of almost 49 points per game in three conference games? I realize Kansas will probably be without QB Jalon Daniels, but Jason Bean did a very nice job in his absence in last week’s 38-31 loss to TCU. There is a very short list of conference teams that Oklahoma could be favored over at the moment and Kansas isn’t one of them.
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