Visiting UTSA brings a high-powered passing offense to south Florida. But, with rain in the forecast and likely with a big early lead, the Roadrunners will stick more to the ground and shorten the game. Their defense is shaky, yielding 32.0 points per game, yet the schedule has been nasty until now. FIU has not exceeded 21 points in its last four outings. Stir in wet conditions, and the Panthers will contribute little to the scoring.

Florida International already has made some giant steps this season after getting its first FBS win in two years. The Panthers are learning to trust each other and executing game plans already better than last season. New coach Mike MacIntyre inherited a team with just six returning starters, but the team is showing positive signs and actually has a better defense statistically than UTSA. FIU QB Grayson James will lead the team to scores. The spread is seven points too high due to a popularity tax. Who wants to bet on FIU? I do. Panthers cover.

Florida International is objectively bad but getting 33 points at home? UTSA is in a bit of a trap position off a huge win over Western Kentucky on a short week. The Roadrunners are not a good defensive team, allowing and 447.8 yards to their opponents -- 115th nationally. FIU can manage to hang within something like 48-20.