If there is a team and coach facing big-time pressure to respond after a bad loss, it is Michigan State and Mel Tucker. The Spartans showed up late, and the 39-28 score was not indicative of how poor the Spartans played against Washington. Now, they're back at home to face a Minnesota team that has a ton of experience and will be hungry to showcase itself on the road. Take Minnesota, as Michigan State was ranked improperly and will continue to falter.

Through their first three games, the Minnesota Golden Gophers are outscoring their opponents 149-17. Their running back, Mohamed Ibrahim, already has 464 rushing yards and seven touchdowns, leads FBS. In the Michigan State Spartans first test, they got dismantled by Washington. They went down 22-0 early and couldn't recover. The Spartans couldn't run the ball, which will be a big problem again today. They averaged just 1.4 yards per carry in that game and now face the elite rush defense of the Gophers. Expect the Gophers to control the ball and win this game by more than a field goal.

Washington took advantage of a dinged up and still somewhat porous Spartan defense to cruise to an easy win in Seattle last week. The Gophers play more into Michigan State’s strength. Minnesota is primarily a running team and with top receiver Chris Autman-Bell out for the season, it will be harder to take advantage of MSU’s pass defense. I think the wrong team is favored here.

Look, I faded my Spartans last week at Washington simply as it did not set up well for them, especially without top wideout Jayden Reed. MSU didn't look great, but this spread feels like an overreaction. I don't know as of this writing if Reed will play this week, but knowing Mel Tucker a bit, he held him out as an extra precaution that Reed is ready for this Big Ten opener. We do know for sure that Gophers top wideout Chris-Autman Bell is out as he's done for the year. He leads Minnesota in receptions (11) and receiving yards (214). This is a pick'em in my mind, so I'll happily take +3 on home Sparty. Highly doubt it gets to +3.5 but might not hurt to buy the hook.

Minnesota has won and covered its first three games. The running game (312 ypg) is coming on strong with senior RB Mo Ibrahim leading the way and senior QB Tanner Morgan managing the perfect game. Minnesota last won against Michigan State in 2009 and Minnesota is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings, but Minnesota was the underdog in each. I bet Michigan State because the rating adjustments on both teams went too far after Saturday’s games. Take the points with Michigan State.