This one is hitting in a whopping 80 percent of simulations, with the projected total approaching 80 points. That’s a significant edge, to say the least. Both offenses score a ton of points, and neither defense has been able to stop anyone. That’s the recipe. Houston is scoring 33.4 points per game and giving up 34, while the Jayhawks are averaging 55 (No. 1 in FBS) and yielding 42. Oddsmakers aren’t sure about Kansas yet, so this number is way too low.

Early returns suggest Lance Leipold could be the right coach to turn around the moribund Jayhawks program. They are coming off a headline-grabbing 55-42 win at West Virginia in which they overcame a 14-point deficit to run away in the second half. Conversely, Houston overcame a 14-point deficit only to come up short against Texas Tech in overtime. Although the Jayhawks should compete, the possibility of a letdown looms and we're getting value on a number that has dropped from -10. Houston is in a strong motivational spot Saturday.

They haven't caught onto Kansas yet. The market and books still think these are the same terrible Jayhawks, but they aren't. They've been on a steady climb since about halfway through last season, and keep getting better. While the defense needs a lot of work, the Kansas offense is explosive and that's how it beat West Virginia last week. This week it faces a Houston defense that has really struggled against the run in its two games. Take the Jayhawks and the points before the rest of the world catches on.

Break up the Jayhawks! Kansas is off to an impressive 2-0 start to the season, averaging 55 points per game. This week they face a Houston Cougars defense that has given up 30 points per game to start the season. I don't foresee any defense being able to slow each other down, which means that we should see a back-and-forth, entertaining contest from start to finish. 10 points just feels like too much disrespect for this particular Jayhawks team.