UNC may end up with one of the best offenses in the country this season behind QB Drake Maye. The Tar Heels already have 119 points in two games this season, including 63 at Appalachian State last week in a two-point win. Georgia State isn't bad, but also isn't quite as good as the Mountaineers. Carolina will light up the scoreboard again and cover a touchdown spread.

I'll be playing alternate UNC -6.5 at -125 (DraftKings) but for our purposes on here now that it's down to 7, we'll roll with it. Have the Heels actually upgraded at QB over Sam Howell with freshman Drake Maye? He has been unconscious in two games. UNC looks like one of the nation's best offenses, but the defense is certainly an issue. Not sure Georgia State's fairly one-dimensional attack will do too much damage, though. GSU managed only 14 points in its opener against South Carolina. The Heels beat visiting GSU 59-17 last year. This will be closer but hopefully still a double-digit win as long as Maye and Co. aren't looking ahead to their bye/Notre Dame on Sept. 24.

Have you seen North Carolina play this season? It's a team with an NFL QB in Drake Maye that can't stop scoring points combined with a defense that can't stop anybody. Until things change, or the totals posted reach the 70s, just keep smashing that Over.

North Carolina defeated Appalachian State 63-61 last week despite being outgained by 82 yards. Georgia State has the better offensive line, defensive line and special teams. The Tar Heels are 0-5 straight up and against the spread in the second contest on the last five occasions they played back-to-back road games. The Panthers are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 contests on turf while North Carolina is just 1-4 ATS on the surface over the past three years. Georgia State is 5-1 ATS after a loss of at least 20 points. Look for the Panthers to cover.

We saw last week that North Carolina doesn't play a lick of defense, but that likely inflated this point total several points higher than it should be. Georgia State's offense struggled mightily against South Carolina and, while the Tar Heels have been horrific defensively and will likely continue to give up big plays, I anticipate their offense to do all that they can to keep their defense off the field.

For the second straight week we're returning to the well to draw out value until the numbers catch up to North Carolina being one of the best Over teams in America. Tar Heels quarterback Drake Maye looks like a future pro and with him leading the offense UNC seems poised to score 35-40 points per game. They'll also need all of those points in order to be successful because this defense has been carved up by Florida A&M and App State to tune of 6.69 yards per play allowed. Anything under 70 is an auto-fire until we see improvement from the Tar Heels defensively.