While Northwestern is one of my favorite underdog leans in any given season, its win over Nebraska in Dublin, Ireland, was as much about what the Cornhuskers did wrong as what they did right. Similarly, Duke's obliteration of Temple was not so much about the Blue Devils suddenly becoming dominant but rather the Owls starting a long rebuild. This is a matchup of two defense-first coaches who are going to slug it out across 60 minutes. We missed the best line by waiting until closer to kickoff (candidly, I thought it might hit 60 given heavy public action is on the over), but I'm still comfortable enough here. There's a non-zero chance this is played in the teens.

These are two teams that build their identity around defense. That has been true of Northwestern for the entire time Pat Fitzgerald has been the Wildcats coach. That will also likely be true of New Blue Devils skipper Mike Elko, who was previously the defensive coordinator at Texas A&M. Duke got off to a good start this season with a 30-0 shutout of Temple. Northwestern will probably win the game, but the winning bet is the under.

I'm sorry, but if you see a total creeping up toward 60 points in a game between Northwestern and Duke and don't immediately bet the Under, we can't be friends. Northwestern's performance against Nebraska was promising, but I'm not buying in yet. Both these teams are defense-first, and look to limit mistakes and play complementary football. That doesn't usually lead to shootouts.

I don't get this total going bonkers today at all -- Chip Patterson went Under this morning when it was at 54, and I agreed with him then. Now it's 58.5?!?! Northwestern got two weeks to prepare for this game, so I don't see Duke doing too much offensively. The Blue Devils might not be terrible defensively themselves under new head coach Mike Elko, a former DC at Texas A&M. Duke blanked Temple in its opener, the school's first shutout of a Football Bowl Subdivision team since 1989. The SL Model has 51 points being scored and I basically concur.

The Northwestern revenge tour from 2021's struggles already got one cathartic victory with the comeback win against Nebraska in Ireland, and now the Wildcats get a visit from a Duke program that took them down a season ago. The team, however, is different in that it's led by first-year coach Mike Elko, the former Texas A&M and Notre Dame defensive coordinator. After pitching a shutout against Temple the expectations are that Elko's Blue Devils are going to be solid on defense first, as that's his expertise and where a majority of the proven experience lies. Though the Wildcats showed some spark against Nebraska, I think the value lies in picking both defenses to play well.