Utah State is one of the better stories of the 2021 season, but it has a touch matchup against the Aztecs here. Defensively, the Aztecs should be able to smother a Utah State offense that is explosive but highly-inefficient. Still, I don't want to take the Aztecs against the spread, because SDSU is happy scoring just as many points as it needs to get by. All of which makes the under far more appealing here.

Utah State might have closed the season on a 6-1 straight-up streak, but its victims are several notches below San Diego State. Only Wisconsin in FBS prevents the run better that the Aztecs. They also deny chunk plays, which the inconsistent Aggies offense relies on. The title-game site (Carson, Calif.) makes it a semi-home game for the Aztecs, who played a couple hours from campus this year while their stadium is built.