This is a buy-low, sell-high moment with Clemson going 0-6 ATS and its rating dropping 18 points since the season-opening loss to Georgia. The Tigers had another loss at NC State. Two losses, that’s it. Pitt is 5-1 ATS but lost to Western Michigan and beat the likes of UMass and New Hampshire. This will be the toughest defense the Panthers will face. It’s Clemson’s main strength this season, and it’s what will keep the Tigers in the game. I took the points with Clemson.

We're halfway through the season and we pretty well have Clemson figured out now -- you can't score on them and they can't score on you. Pitt and its potent offense will give it a go and is unlikely to be much more successful than anyone else. The Panthers may win anyway, but the under is the way to go here.

I've been waiting all week for this spread to get to 3.5 and here it is ... maybe only briefly. It's the first time since October 2016 that Clemson is a regular-season underdog. You don't think Dabo Swinney will use that as motivation? Clearly, this team is not close offensively to past Clemson teams but it remains excellent on defense. A few key injured players are expected back, too. Maybe Pitt is better than I think, but the Panthers also lost to a MAC school, so ... I'm fine with a Panthers win by a field goal. Be nice to have some new blood in the ACC title game.

As disappointing as Clemson has been, are you sure it's not still the best team in the ACC? And even if it isn't, should it be an underdog against Pitt? The Panthers offense has slowed down a lot in two ACC games, and this week it's facing a Clemson defense better than anything else it's seen. If Pitt can't complete big passes against this Tigers defense, what's it capable of doing?

Right now the Pitt Panthers are playing some fantastic football. So much so that we're starting to see Heisman talk surrounding QB Kenny Pickett, who has played really well. However, despite not being the same type of Clemson team we've seen in the past, this is still a very good Tigers bunch that can win at the point of attack. I'm going to side with the team I trust the most up front.