Texas was appropriately favored in this game, but with the line coming down to under four points, there’s now value on the Longhorns, which I have as a 6-point favorite. Oklahoma State has impressed this season starting 4-0 and 3-1 ATS, but it’s lost the last two in the series and has not yet faced an offense like the one Texas brings into the game. The Longhorns are going to score and score often. Will the Pokes keep up? Not over all four quarters. Nice bounce back spot at home for the 'Horns. (Texas -3 is out there ahead of kickoff, so definitely look for it.)

Oklahoma State is the Big 12's answer to Iowa, except Iowa plays complimentary football. It pairs its amazing defense that forces turnovers with outstanding special teams, and together they give the offense short fields to work with. Oklahoma State has a great defense too. Unfortunately, it also has a negative turnover margin on the season, and bad special teams to go along with an anemic offense. I can't trust the Cowboys to score enough points to keep up here.

If this game features at least 60 points scored, Oklahoma State simply is not winning it. While most of the Big 12 is going fast, fast, faster offensively, Mike Gundy and OSU are slowing it down and winning with ball control and defense. The Pokes haven't allowed more than 23 points yet but also have topped 30 themselves just once. Texas might be a bit flat off the Oklahoma loss and also lost No. 2 WR Jordan Whittington to injury. Stud RB Bijan Robinson could find it tough sledding against a very veteran OSU defense allowing only 91.0 rushing yards per game.

This seems like a game that the Cowboys have circled on their schedule. Last season Texas defeated Oklahoma State 41-34 in overtime as a 3.5-point road underdog, despite getting outgained 530-287. Oklahoma State had a -4 turnover differential. Texas is coming off a disappointing loss against Oklahoma while the Cowboys have two weeks to prepare for this revenge game. Oklahoma State is 6-1 ATS in its past seven road games as an underdog. I'll take the points with the better defense in this one.