This is a tough call given Iowa and Penn State have exceeded expectations, but if you look at how both teams have performed, flaws begin to expose themselves for Nittany Lions. Namely, Penn State can't run the ball. Entering what should be a low-scoring, defense-heavy game in a tough road environment, that's a major negative. While I do like Penn State's ability to strike quicker than Iowa offensively, expecting that it will do so consistently is a tough ask. It will take uncommon mistakes by the Hawkeyes defense plus extremely careful football from the Nittany Lions to pull off the minor upset. Iowa cannot count on turnovers, but it may not need to given the home-field advantage. (I will actually buy the half point if I can get it for -115 as I prefered the line closer to -1.5 or -2.)

It's difficult to fade Iowa at this point. Much like Michigan, the Buffalo Bills and even Georgia...they just keep cashing tickets for us so why stop until they tell us to stop? This is going to be a phenomenal game, both Penn State and Iowa have tremendous defenses and that stadium is going to be rocking. This is one of those where you could find incredible stats to bolster the pick on each side so why force it. For me, the Iowa betting train continues until they show us the ride is over.

Listen, you can bet this Under with me and live life the way it was meant to be lived, or you can be a coward. What's it going to be?

I've been vocal in my concerns about the Iowa offense and how the team has been too reliant on turnovers to get points, but the Iowa offense that showed up against Maryland last week was the best version I've seen of it this season. On the other side, as impressive as Sean Clifford has been for Penn State this season, he looked bad against Indiana last week, and I'm not ready to trust him on the road in an environment like Kinnick Stadium against a defense that forces turnovers at the rate this Iowa defense does. So I'll take the short home favorite.

Penn State has won nine straight games (8-1 ATS) dating back to last season. Its last loss came at home against Iowa, 41-21. Both teams are 5-0 and 4-1 ATS this season. Both come with a strong defense, but two keys point toward Iowa. The Hawkeyes lead the nation with a plus-12 turnover margin. They also have a big home-field edge that isn’t showing enough in the spread. Take Iowa to cover the short number.

Clearly the game of the week and it might only take three points to win this one -- I'm not even kidding. Iowa is No. 2 nationally in allowing 10.6 ppg and Penn State third at 12.0. The Hawkeyes have won 11 straight dating to last season, when they rolled 41-21 in Happy Valley. Iowa has played a tougher schedule this year as well with quality victories at Iowa State and Maryland. Penn State's only road win was at Wisconsin, and that looks like junk now. The Nittany Lions haven't played away from home since that matchup back on Sept. 4. That's the difference in my mind. Hawkeyes by 3.