Now that this has dipped under 7, which may be temporary, let's try it on the Knights. Hard to see Louisville running the ball with much success against the nation's No. 2 rush defense, and Cards QB Malik Cunningham really isn't the type of guy who should be throwing it 40 times. On the flip side, UCF's offense is explosive behind QB Dillon Gabriel, and UofL couldn't stop Ole Miss in the season opener at all. Maybe the Knights' offense isn't quite as good as the Rebs', but it's not that far off.

The Louisville defense is allowing 402.0 yards per game and is going to have a tough time slowing Dillon Gabriel and the UCF offense, which is averaging 583.0 yards. The Louisville offense, led by QB Malik Cunningham, won’t be able to keep up, much the same way the Cardinals fell short against Ole Miss. I’m on UCF to cover.

Don't sleep on the Knights getting back into the New Year's Six mix. They'll make another statement on Friday when they throttle Louisville by at least two touchdowns. UCF has a knack of getting teams into shootouts, and the Cardinals simply aren't built for that. Moving the ball against Ole Miss two weeks ago was like pulling teeth, and UCF's defense is light years ahead of where the Rebels are at the moment. This one will get sideways.