Motivation is worth a few points alone to Indiana. The Hoosiers are ticked at being omitted from the New Year’s Day bowl lineup, and fiery coach Tim Allen will have them geared up more than his laconic counterpart, Lane Kiffin, will have the Rebels. The Ole Miss defense is flat awful. Its offense is robust, but QB Matt Corral is prone to interceptions. Sure enough, Indiana led the nation in picks with 17 while playing just seven games. The defense yields just under 20 points per game and should corral Corral. Throw in some opt-outs and injuries for the Rebels, and a romp that resembles those Friday’s semifinals is foreseeable.

The Rebels offense will be without first-team all-American receiver Elijah Moore (opt out) and dangerous tight end Kenny Yeboah (opt out) and maybe a couple more key players because of injury. Quarterback Matt Corral has thrown an interception every 20.1 pass attempts, which ranks 119th out of 126 qualifying quarterbacks in the FBS, and faces an Indiana defense that ranked second in the country this season with 17 picks. On the other side of the ball, the Hoosiers will face an Ole Miss defense that's barely more than a rumor, ranking last in the SEC in scoring defense and total defense. My model says Indiana covers two-thirds of the time.

The Rebels impose their style on every opponent, and that won't change on Saturday against an Indiana team that has shown, at times, to have a potent offense. That hasn't been the case over the last two games though. The loss of Michael Penix has been clear, and Jack Tuttle hasn't been able to replicate the early-season success of the Hoosiers offense. Take the Rebels and consider a money line sprinkle.