MAC CHAMPIONSHIP -- The main thing we have learned from the topsy-turvy MAC this season is that the club from Western New York has lapped the field in terms of talent level and execution. The lone concern is that the Bulls didn't answer the challenge the last time they were on this stage. But they have won every game by at least 25 points, while a solid Ball State club has seen four of its five wins come by single figures. If the Bulls can be themselves once more, they pull away and cover this.

I already had a pick in on the spread for this game but after watching the total climb so high on Friday, I had to get in on the Under. I like the Under for the same reason I like Ball State and the points. This total is climbing because Buffalo has one of the most potent offenses in the country, but that ignores the context of the Bulls playing three of the worst defenses in the country. Their offense wasn't nearly as prolific against Northern Illinois and Miami (OH), two teams that are at the same level as Ball State.

This isn't easy to do because Buffalo has been one of the better teams in the country statistically, but while the Bulls are the best team in the MAC, the numbers are inflated by what's been one of the easiest schedules in the country. This Ball State team is far better than anybody else the Bulls have come in contact with, and while Buffalo should win, it won't be the rout they've grown accustomed to.

Buffalo has been getting better with each outing. The Bulls are led by a rushing attack that has become unstoppable for MAC teams, and I don’t believe Ball State’s defense is the one to stop it. Buffalo is the No. 1 rushing team in the nation at 344.6 yards per game, but the last three games have been the most impressive: 396, 515 and 428. Buffalo is 5-0, but 4-1 ATS and 4-1 to the Over. This is a big number, but the relentless nature of Buffalo’s play calling with no mercy has me laying it.