As I make this pick on Friday, the forecast is calling for steady winds of 13 to 14 mph. That can change quickly, but it's far from the only reason I like the under in this game. Kansas State was already a run-heavy team before losing Skylar Thompson and having to turn to Will Howard. The Wildcats will be looking to control the ball in this spot to limit Texas' possessions and stay within range. While the Texas defense has been solid against the run, it's hasn't been good enough to lead me to believe KSU won't have some success. Texas doesn't run the ball effectively outside of Sam Ehlinger in battering ram mode, and it's inefficient in the passing attack.

Really wish I had gotten this K-State at +7.5, but I still think it's a wise bet at +7 as the Wildcats may win outright. Texas is a sinking ship, with the Horns likely to be completely lifeless off last week's crushing loss to Iowa State that ended UT's chances of reaching the Big 12 title game. Plus, the Horns lost two starters and captains to opt-outs this week in offensive tackle Samuel Cosmi and safety Caden Sterns. A loss here, and that could be it for Tom Herman (check out news feed for Texas coach odds story).