There's little doubt East Carolina has emerged as the Underdog Nobody Wants for the Friday CFB slate, but you could do a lot worse. The Pirates are generally competitive and just a couple plays away from a 3-3 record following a collapse against Navy and some late-game misfortune against Tulsa. The Bearcats deserve all the acclaim they are getting but could be due for a natural letdown spot following three straight contests against upper-tier AAC opponents.

Cincinnati is the only ranked team playing on Friday, and it's also a team that's being hyped up as a potential Playoff candidate. So, not surprisingly, it's being overvalued. The Bearcats are better than the Pirates, but not four touchdowns. If I'm laying this many points I prefer to do so with explosive passing offenses, and the Bearcats do not have that. Instead I'll back an ECU team that is 3-2 ATS as a dog this year and has already covered large spreads against UCF and Tulsa. Oh, and the Pirates would have won that Tulsa game if not for three horrific calls by officials. The conference actually felt the need to apologize for them.

Cincinnati can't afford any slip-ups and the Bearcats are now in a spot where they have to win impressively. We've talked about their defense and how great they've been, but now they have an offense to match. The Bearcats are just too strong and stout on both sides of the ball to not cover against an inconsistent ECU squad.