The Oklahoma Sooners find themselves in a similar spot to 2019: One week after a loss against Kansas State, the Sooners take on Iowa State. Oklahoma's defense is concerning. Last year the Sooners surrendered a regular-season high 41 points against Iowa State. Grab the Cyclones and the points.

My model actual likes Iowa State to win this game, so you're getting solid value with the Cyclones at this number. After losing to Louisiana in the season opener, Iowa State earned a very professional win at TCU last week. Now the Cyclones face an Oklahoma team that's looking for answers after losing to Kansas State and is hitting the road for the first time. Take the points and consider the moneyline as well.

I love betting on Matt Campbell when nobody believes in his team. The man is a spread-covering monster as an underdog. In his time at Toledo, his Rockets teams went 10-6 as an underdog in the regular season. At Iowa State, they've gone 18-7, so he's 28-13 overall. Making this even better is Campbell is 21-7 ATS as a dog in conference games (16-5 in the Big 12), and he's 4-0 ATS against Oklahoma. Now, he's never been less than a 14-point dog in those games, but he's also never lost to Oklahoma by more than 10. The Cyclones will stick around this weekend too.

Oklahoma choked last week against Kansas State, without question, but hasn't lost back-to-back regular-season games this century. That K-State defeat likely woke the Sooners up because another loss and they aren't making the CFP or perhaps even the Big 12 title game. This spread opened at -9.5 and is down to a TD, and I get that Iowa State usually plays OU tough. I wouldn't have touched this at 9.5, but at worst Lincoln Riley's team should win by a TD for a push. The Cyclones are on a six-game ATS losing streak overall.

Really? We’re so down on the Sooners that we’re only going to lay a touchdown against an offensively-challenged Cyclones squad? Don’t buy into that trap. Sure, Oklahoma’s defense is dreadful. But I’m not going to believe that the Cyclones suddenly figured it out after gaining just 423 yards and a 3 of 11 performance on third downs against lowly TCU.