Look, maybe the sharps know something I do not, but this line is befuddling to me. Not only is Baylor only a 1.5-point favorite, the line has dropped over the last couple of days. Now that it is clear under a field goal, it's a no-brainer for me. The Bears could win this game by double digits if everything goes right, and they got a great tune-up game in Kansas last week. Unless there is some mass of players absent, Baylor should roll.

I get that it's a road game, but I don't get all of the love for West Virginia in this spot. I make Baylor -6 on the road under head coach Dave Aranda. I think the market will be a little slow to adjust for the defensive improvements that I think we see under Aranda. Charlie Brewer's experience will come in handy here as the Bears come away with a road win. Lay it.

I can’t figure out the love affair with West Virginia, and the world has seemingly disregarded the talent on Baylor’s roster. First-year coach Dave Aranda and his defense allowed just 4.3 yards per play in the opener against Kansas last week. Granted, it’s Kansas. But it’s not like Baylor is known as a defensive juggernaut. If that’s how Aranda is going to transform the Bears, it could be a championship recipe. After all, quarterback Charlie Brewer and the rest of that offense are known commodities. Take Baylor, lay those points and expect Brewer to have more of an impact on the scoreboard in a surprisingly high-scoring game.

I have Baylor winning over 70 percent of simulations, making this a money-line play. Look for a strong game from Charlie Brewer as the Bears post a solid victory under new coach Dave Aranda.