Utah vs. Texas

ALAMO BOWL -- It's basically déjà vu for the Longhorns, whose last chance to finish up an otherwise disappointing season on a positive note is to win a bowl game as an underdog against an opponent that just missed reaching the CFP. Texas came through last year and handily beat Georgia as a two-touchdown underdog. Utah's lack of quality competition was exposed in a lopsided loss to Oregon on the Pac-12 title game. The Utes will have an edge in physicality, but the value lies in taking a Texas club with a default home-field advantage.

ALAMO BOWL -- On the one hand, Utah RB Zack Moss, the Pac-12 MVP, has elected to play. On the other, all-league CB Jaylon Johnson has chosen not to because he is focused on the NFL Draft and all-league S Julian Blackmon (knee) is injured. So the Utes will do their part to deliver an Over. Texas allowed more passing yards than all but three of the 130 FBS members, while QB Sam Ehlinger was the No. 2 passer in the throw-centric Big 12. Utah QB Tyler Huntley is no slouch as the most efficient Pac-12 passer and is a strong runner to boot.

ALAMO BOWL -- Point-of-attack play will be big in this matchup between Utah and Texas. Where it could take a turn for the Longhorns is on the defensive side of the ball. Utah does a great job of winning consistently up front, and it has amazing players at QB and RB that could make it a difficult night for Texas.

ALAMO BOWL -- The Longhorns have to run the football to set the tone, and nobody's been able to do that consistently against the Utes this season. What's more, Utah coach Kyle Whittingham is 11-2 in bowl games and will want to make a statement that his team isn't the one that laid an egg in the Pac-12 Championship Game with the College Football Playoff on the line.

ALAMO BOWL -- The Tom Herman as an Underdog Principle is dead. Dead, dead, dead, dead, dead. Texas is 0-5 straight up as a dog this season and only 2-3 ATS. Utah, meanwhile, is 11-2 straight up in bowl games under Kyle Whittingham and 9-4 ATS. They're also a much better team than they looked like against Oregon, and the Ducks are a much better squad than this Texas team. Lay it with the Utes.

ALAMO BOWL -- The Utes have to be disappointed after being upended by Oregon. They were gashed on the ground by the Ducks, and look for the Horns to try to duplicate that game plan here. Utah coach Kyle Whittingham may be 11-2 in bowl games, but Texas doesn't have to win this game; the Longhorns just need to keep it close. Quarterback Sam Ehlinger ranks second in the Big 12 in passing yards and total offense, and Utah will be playing without a couple key defensive starters. Take Texas.