The Sooners have been counted out for three weeks now. Oklahoma has outgained its competition by 178 yards per game when playing on the road while LSU out gained their opponents by 98 yards. The Sooners have sent just as many players to the NFL in the last five years as LSU, so talent will not be an issue. And QB Jalen Hurts has been in the last three College Football Playoffs. He threw for 32 touchdowns and ran for another 18 this season and is a true dual-threat QB with three running backs who each averaged better than 6.0 yards per carry. Take Oklahoma.

If you look at Oklahoma and LSU statistically they’re almost identical on both sides of the ball. But after LSU beat Alabama and blew out Georgia in the SEC title game and with the Sooners going 1-5 ATS in their last six, we’ve got a rating shuffle that produces such a large number here. I like the Sooners to make this a tight game with a good chance of winning. Joe Burrow has the traditional Heisman burden while Jalen Hurts has been in this spot before. Sooners to win outright is a strong possibility, but I took the points.

LSU's improvement on defense has been greatly overlooked. The Tigers have allowed 17 points total over their past two games, and that defense will help this game get out of hand. My simulation projects LSU to win 52-32, so you're getting solid value with the Tigers at -13.5. Take LSU.

PEACH BOWL -- Welcome to the second-highest total since the birth of the College Football Playoffs. If this were a bowl with little at stake, an Over would be tempting. But games with lots on the line tend to include stretches during which an offense (or both) turns conservative. With the Big 12’s top defense, Oklahoma has shed its reputation as an offense-only program, and the Sooners enter with four straight Unders. LSU leans Under lately at neutral sites, having gone 5-2 before crowds with split allegiances. Under is the play.

PEACH BOWL -- There will be a lot made of the suspension of Oklahoma's Ronnie Perkins, as he's the team's best pass-rusher. I don't think it's a huge deal, though, because LSU's offense gets the ball out too quickly. While I expect LSU to win, Oklahoma's offense is too explosive to get blown out without multiple turnovers. Even after Alabama jumped out to a 28-0 lead on the Sooners in last year's semi, they battled back within 11. I don't think they ever fall that far behind in this one.

PEACH BOWL -- I find it hard to envision a Jalen Hurts-led offense not being able to find enough success to keep this a one-possession game. I know the Sooners' defense isn't great by any stretch of the imagination, but neither is LSU's. Now, the Tigers are much better in that area than Oklahoma, but not 13.5 points better when facing a dynamic QB like Hurts.

PEACH BOWL -- Getting this under two touchdowns is huge because it allows a Tigers' cover even if Oklahoma threatens late to make the score more respectable. The Sooners are last in the nation in penalty yards and 109th in turnover margin. That translates to extra possessions and free first downs for LSU, which will make the Sooners pay. This one gets sideways.