COTTON BOWL -- Late season stumbles by Penn State came via tough road games at Minnesota and Ohio State. Meanwhile Memphis will be without coach Mike Norvell who took the job at Florida State. But that -- as well as the public's perception of the AAC -- have helped to take this number too high. Take advantage of a full seven points on Memphis.

COTTON BOWL -- I love the Memphis offense led by Brady White, who averages 9.6 yards per pass and threw 33 touchdown passes for the No. 8 offense in the country. Memphis won the American Athletic Conference Championship, which also give the Tigers a small advantage of having just three weeks between games. Penn State's last game was Nov. 30. Even though coach Mike Norvell has left for Florida State, I expect the players to go into we-will-show-you mode. Take Memphis.

COTTON BOWL -- Memphis-Penn State is going to be one of those games where Memphis draws Penn State into a pace the Nittany Lions don’t want. Penn State allows only 14.1 points per game while Memphis averaged 40.5 points on offense. But recent history shows Memphis sets the pace against better teams going Over the total in 10 of its last 12 games as an underdog and 12 of its last 16 in nonconference games. Over is the top play.

COTTON BOWL -- Maybe It’s a plus for Memphis that coach Mike Norvell did not stick around after taking the Florida State job, given that he went 0-3 in bowls. But he puts successor Ryan Silverfield in a tough spot against more talented Penn State. The favorites allow just 14.1 points per game, seventh fewest in the nation, which should partly negate the Tigers’ potent offense. James Franklin stands at 5-3 ATS in bowls as coach of Penn State and Vanderbilt. Take the Nittany Lions.

COTTON BOWL -- The Over has gone 8-5 in Memphis games this season and is 25-14-1 in the last three seasons. So, obviously I'm an idiot, because I'm all over the Under here. Memphis isn't used to facing defenses and front sevens like the one it will see in Penn State. Plus, Mike Norvell is gone to Florida State. Then there's a Penn State team that has been inefficient on offense nearly all season long, and lost its offensive coordinator to Old Dominion.

COTTON BOWL -- Will Penn State be able to stop the rushing attack of Memphis, which can beat you with both explosiveness and depth. It'll be up to the Nittany Lions edge and alley defenders to make plays consistently. I don't expect Penn State to sleepwalk into this matchup, as Memphis will treat it like a playoff game. I like this contest to be a tight one.