We've officially reached a take number on the Ducks now that it has hit this key threshold. The Utes are a legitimately solid team, but have had about as soft of a schedule as an 11-win team can hope for. They lost at USC -- where Oregon won by 32 points -- and had to play a near-perfect game to win at Washington. it's rare that Oregon is lacking due respect in the betting market, but this is one such time and it's worth exploiting.

The line and total are now creating insufficient markets. I wanted to give you the total Under because of the weather and two top-20 defenses, however the weather may not be as bad as expected. The total has also dropped too low. The talent difference between the two teams is very marginal and my line is Utah by just 2.5 points. Oregon will be the best team Utah has played this year, however Oregon opened the year with an Auburn team that is just as good or better than Utah. Oregon’s offensive line will give the Ducks an opportunity to control the pace of play and Justin Herbert should have play-action opportunities.

This selection is largely about the weather. Likely rain and high winds could impact passing. Oregon averages 33 throws per game, 11 more than Utah. Though the Ducks run the ball effectively, few teams do it better than Utah, which gains 5 yards per attempt, best in the Pac-12. The Ducks’ defense is vicious in the red zone, but the Utes can move the chains enough to accumulate enough scores for a cover.

The Utes are like a West Coast SEC team. They can run the ball, stop the run, get after the quarterback, and have the most efficient QB in college football in Tyler Huntley. Oregon's strengths are along both sides of the line of scrimmage, so it will be a battle. But, the X-Factor is Ducks QB Justin Herbert's inability to thrive in big games on the schedule. This, is a big game.

While both of these teams have strong offenses, the primary reason they've gotten this far is their defenses. Both are outstanding, and both will dictate who wins this game. Combine those defenses with some windy weather in Santa Clara on Friday night, and it bodes well for a low-scoring affair.

Locking this in now because it's bound to climb before kickoff. This total has plummeted from an-already modest opener of 50 but I don't see a sharp Under play planning out. The low number is because Oregon and Utah have two of the best scoring defensive units in the country. They both also score nearly 36 points per game. Utah gave up 30 to USC and 28 to Washington two of the better opponents it faced. There are just too many explosive athletes on both sides to envision the Pac-12 title game turning into a punt fest.

My model says that the Ducks cover the spread 62 percent of the time, so you're getting great value playing Oregon at this point spread. The Ducks have scored at least 24 points in seven straight contests and have won 13 of their last 15 dating back to last season. Each of Oregon's losses in that span has been by fewer than seven points. Take the Ducks and the points.