There's a value position on this total now that it has risen a notch above this key number. Both offense have explosive ability, but the defensive units should take charge of this one and make points difficult to come by. We'll see some big plays but this one should get in Under the total.

The Auburn defense has held everyone in check and has played against some pretty good quarterbacks, including Justin Herbert whom the Tigers held to just 21 points. Auburn's weak link is freshman quarterback Bo Nix. He is extremely talented, but he is still a freshman playing on the road in a hostile environment. Out of his five games, only two have been above average, and they were both at home. Florida's new starting quarterback, Kyle Trask, is a small dropoff from Feleipe Franks. Trask will be up against the best defense that he has faced this year. Under is the play.

Bo Nix was great against Mississippi State, but this is a much different test on the road against a much better Florida defense. A freshman QB is going to make mistakes on the road and I think that happens today. With the Gators having a 2.9 point edge at home, my model makes the Gators +1 home dogs. I'm taking the points.

Since losing at Alabama in November, Auburn has taken all parts of its game up a notch, beginning with a bowl win and then winning and covering all five of its games this season. And three of those games have been against good competition, meaning that the Tigers are more battle-tested than Florida. Freshman quarterback Bo Nix gains more confidence with each game, and he’ll be the main reason why Auburn wins and covers Saturday.

Last week Bo Nix tore the Mississippi State defense apart, putting on his most balanced offensive display so far. That's a good sign for Auburn going forward, but the Mississippi State defense cannot compare to the Florida defense Nix and the Tigers will face this week. Give me one of the most disruptive defenses in the country against an Auburn offensive line I'm not sold on, and a freshman QB on the road.

There will be a bevy of tremendous running back talent on display in this game, as the Gators' dynamic duo of Lamical Perine and Dameon Pierce lead the way for Florida's offense. Meanwhile Auburn's JaTarvious Whitlow is one of the best backs in the SEC. Tigers true freshman quarterback Bo Nix has gotten better each week since the Oregon game. But this is his biggest defensive test to date. Take Florida and the points.

Don't fall into the trap that Auburn set last week when it lit up Mississippi State through the air. The Tigers had to know that quarterback Bo Nix can do that moving forward, but he won't need to on Saturday. Defenses will dominate and Auburn will get back to its old-school, power-based offense to win convincingly ... and ugly. This has all the makings of a 21-10-style game.