A year ago Herm Edwards' Sun Devils were able to stun Michigan State on their home field. It was the type of game that the offense did very little until the final window of the fourth quarter. That’s fresh in the minds of a Michigan State team that will have opportunities against a different caliber Arizona State team. Don’t expect the Spartans to let off the gas in this one. Grab Michigan State.

For a matchup between Power Five schools with a low total of 42, a spread of more than two touchdowns is magnified. Arizona State took last year’s meeting, 16-13, continuing a streak in which it is 7-2 ATS against the Big Ten. Michigan State, by contrast, stands 2-8 ATS in its last 10 clashes with the Pac-12. The Spartans have been unbending against the run, so the pass-minded Sun Devils should figure out a way to score enough for a cover.

Michigan State's offensive performance last week might have been its best in nearly two years. It gives reasons for optimism going forward. What it doesn't do is make me ready to trust the Spartans as a two-touchdown favorite against Arizona State. This is going to be a rockfight, and I will gladly take two touchdowns.

I made this spread three points higher so it’s already a play for me, but I have a few other intangibles that forced a play on Michigan State such as the revenge from last season when Herm Edwards got his signature Sun Devils win as head coach as a home underdog against the ranked Spartans. Most of all it’s revenge for Brian Lewerke who went to Pinnacle High in Phoenix and had his friends and family in the stands watching the bad loss. The ASU offense led by a freshman QB has struggled so far in 2019 against heavyweights like Kent State and Sacramento State. Michigan State gets the cover.