Virginia's impressive performance ... for most of three quarters ... against Miami must be sticking in the minds of bettors because this team has not proven to be especially capable this season. The Hoos are 1-4 straight up and 2-3 ATS in their last five games with the lone dual cover coming at home against Georgia Tech. The other four games were all double-digit losses. Virginia Tech was humbled by Miami and lost at Georgia Tech on the road, but it has beaten good West Virginia, Boston College and Pittsburgh teams this season. UVa won't be able to stop VT for four quarters.

Towards the tail end of the season there is value to be had against fading teams. Virginia has been competitive throughout the season but from a wins standpoint peaked at the onset. The Cavaliers started 5-1, then lost four of five. The Hokies are the opposite. They’re a team that was ranked far too high at 13th three weeks ago before a loss to Miami. That loss took them a few weeks to recover from, but expect this in-state game to elevate their play. Grab the Hokies.

The Cavaliers have lost four of five heading into this rivalry game, with their defense the major culprit. UVA has allowed at least 31 points in each of those five. While the home team has covered four straight in this series, I see that streak ending Friday night. Look for a huge game from Hokies WR Cam Phillips (68 catches, 918 yards, 7 TDs) as their offense breaks out. In my simulations, the Hokies are winning by two touchdowns and covering 62 percent of the time. Lay the points.