My simulations show just 49 points being scored in Saturday night’s key ACC showdown between Florida State and Clemson. Although the Tigers are noted for their stingy defense the same hasn’t always been true for the Seminoles, who allowed more than 100 combined points in losses to North Carolina and Louisville. But they held rival Miami to 19 in a comeback win and also shut down Wake Forest the following week. Both teams also com in off a bye week to get healthy and rested, so I defense dominating this marquee matchup.

Given the key number offered, I can only have the Seminoles in this spot. Although Clemson has the better overall personnel and has played well in important road games of recent note, I think the Tigers are in for a fight until the end Saturday. The Seminoles have shown gradual improvement and appeared to turn the corner with their comeback win over Miami a few weeks ago. With the rest and preparation for this one, not to mention the home-field advantage, I’m anticipating we’ll see their most complete performance of the season.

This is too many points to give FSU at home, with the Seminoles bidding to salvage their season. The Seminoles might not win their fifth straight game over Clemson in Tallahassee, but they should be in it down to the wire.