This is a contrast in styles matchup. Saint Mary’s typically dictates the pace whether they’re at home or on the road. The Gaels are used to controlling the pace with their history playing Gonzaga, and are still able to make those games into a half-court grinds. The Aggies can be inconsistent at times offensively and Saint Mary’s has the better defense and more efficient perimeter game to take advantage of the Aggies scoring droughts.

Well heavens to Betsy, I won a college hoops game. Who is Betsy by the way? No idea. What a super-fun early afternoon of NCAA Tournament action. And I have a shred of confidence back after a brutal month-plus with South Florida rallying to cover against Louisville. So let's just roll that into this -- I tend to always follow Saint Mary's a bit and not really sure why. Probably like watching them in those late-night games in the WCC and the fact I'm Catholic, I suppose. This will be all about tempo. If the game is in the high 70s, the Aggies will win. If not, it will be the Gaels. KenPom has them rated 17 spots higher.

St. Mary's has won an NCAA Tournament game in 3 of the last 4 years and I like their chances to do the same in 2026. The Gaels are a stout defensive team and I wouldn't be surprised if they slowed Texas A&M's potent offense to more of a crawl on Thursday. Allowing only 64.6 points per game (7th), expect Randy Bennett's team to control the tempo and win this game by at least the upper single digits.

Saint Mary’s is the more talented team and deserves to be a larger favorite. Their strong defense and elite rebounding give them one of the nation’s best Defensive Rebounding Percentages, limiting opponents’ second-chance points. Texas A&M relies on offensive rebounds, but that edge will likely disappear. They also foul often, benefiting Saint Mary’s, the nation’s top free-throw shooting team (81.1%). The Gaels played a much tougher non-conference schedule. Saint Mary’s went 2-1 against top-12 opponents, while Texas A&M went 0-2. Notably, Texas A&M struggled against taller teams, going just 1-5 versus opponents averaging 6’7” or taller, whereas Saint Mary’s excelled against shorter teams, posting a 22-1 record against squads with an average height of 6’5” or less. This matchup plays directly into Saint Mary’s strengths.