The Racers enjoyed a terrific first half of the season. They're 4-9 since, and their defense has fallen apart. Over the past 16 games, opponents are shooting 56.2 percent on 2-point tries and nearly 40 percent on 3-pointers. The Wolf Pack are a senior-laden squad that's eager to win a title, even if it's the NIT. They have multiple scorers capable of exploiting Murray State's defense.

The Wolf Pack made the MWC semifinals before being ousted by eventual champion Utah State. Although they played in a tougher conference than the Racers did in the Missouri Valley Conference and Murray State stumbled to losses in 4 of its past 5, we have seen enough of Nevada to observe that this is a difficult spot in which to back the Wolf Pack as a nearly double-digit favorite.

Murray State's season came crashing down at the wrong time, and now they’re in the NIT, traveling to Reno to play Nevada. Murray State has been flat in their last seven games, not covering the spread, and in the first game of the Missouri Valley Tournament, they got slapped around by UIC 92-79. They shot only 37% from the field that game and lost by 13 despite going to the free-throw line 39 times. Murray State won 20 games this year but lost five of its last seven at the most critical time of its season. Nevada wins by double digits.