Simulation Picks

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Mar 05 2026, 8:30 pm ET

Jaspers

60

@ Stags

71

Money LineFairfield -194

WIN

Unit2.0

Matt Severance

Severance Pays

Profile →

+265

4-2 in Last 6 NCAAB ML Picks

Matt's Analysis:

Welp, I'm getting that Iona back. Look, if KenPom can't get the right teams ranked correctly, I sure as heck don't have the time to grade all these Division I teams. This is high (should be at least -250 imo), but Fairfield is miles better than Manhattan. That clearly does not always matter. I'll bet to win on this: 2 units. Not a chase. I had it in the queue just in case. Was hoping to double up on the MAAC. .... Again, KenPom ranks our team nearly 70 spots higher. Sigh.

Pick Made: Mar 05, 8:02 pm ET on FanDuel

Team Injuries

All Games

ALL

All Games

36%

11-19

13-17

43%

On Road or Neutral

LOCATION

On Road or Neutral

29%

5-12

8-7

53%

As Underdog or PK

STATUS

As Favorite

33%

7-14

6-10

37%

When Spread was +2.5 to +6.5

SPREAD

When Spread was -6.5 to -2.5

0%

0-2

2-2

50%

As Road Underdog

LOCATION & STATUS

Favored on Road or Neutral

16%

2-10

4-2

66%

vs Teams That Win 50-65% of Games

OPP WIN%

vs Teams That Win <50% of Games

23%

3-10

6-11

35%

vs Teams Allowing >72 PPG

OPP DEFENSE

vs Teams Allowing >72 PPG

47%

9-10

47%

After 4+ Days Off

REST

After 4+ Days Off

33%

5-10

10-8

55%

vs FAIR

HEAD TO HEAD

vs MANH

50%

1-1

50%

OPPONENT	W/L	ATS	ML	O/U
@FAIR03/05/2026	60-71LOSS	+4.5LOSS	+173LOSS	147.5UNDER
IONA03/01/2026	69-65LOSS	+2.0LOSS	+118LOSS	151.5UNDER
@STPETE02/27/2026	65-75LOSS	+7.5LOSS	+275LOSS	145.5UNDER
MARIST02/20/2026	84-70LOSS	+3.5LOSS	+147LOSS	141.5OVER
@CAN02/15/2026	69-65WIN	-1.5WIN	-128WIN	141.5UNDER

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