Lots of back-and-forth in the Big Ten suggests that maybe we ought to take a look at Wiscy, which has bounced back smartly after its three defeats most recent to last Tuesday at Columbus, when Ohio State rolled 86-69. Greg Gard’s offense never got into a rhythm vs. the Buckeyes until it was too late, with Gs Nick Boyd and John Blackwell only so-so nights. Each can do better, especially Boyd, who prior to last Tuesday had scored 20+ in six straight while tallying at a 24 ppg rate across that span. Home edge might mean something here, as in its last Madison date the Badgers would run Michigan State off the court 92-71, when Boyd’s 29 points put Sparty to the sword. Play Wisconsin

Wisconsin is 13-2 at home and in prime bounceback mode after its uninspiring performance at Ohio State. The Badgers have enough offensive weapons to succeed against Iowa's tough defense. The Hawkeyes allowed 77 points at Maryland in their last road game. They're also coming off an emotional, court-storming home win over Nebraska. Back Wisconsin in the better situational spot.

I love this spot for Wisconsin returning home after a bad loss to Ohio State without Austin Rapp. Rapp is expected to return on Sunday and that's important for a Wisconsin team that isn't very deep. Greg Gard slammed his squad for not playing physical against Ohio State, so I expect a better effort here. Iowa struggles to score when they aren't creating turnovers. The Badgers are one of the best in the country at not turning the ball over, which means the shaky Iowa offense needs to make shots consistently. Wisconsin is 5-1 coming off a loss, winning those games by an average of nine points. I took the ML (DK) for a half unit but would also bet Wisconsin at -2.5 or less.

Iowa’s defense thrives on forcing turnovers, ranking 14th nationally. But Wisconsin counters with elite ball security, ranking 9th in offensive turnover percentage. When forced into half-court defense, Iowa struggles—ranking 16th of 18 Big Ten teams in 2-point defense. The Hawkeyes’ defensive numbers also plummet on the road, where they’ve allowed 74 or more points in five of seven Big Ten away games. Meanwhile, Wisconsin’s efficiency improves at the Kohl Center in all metrics, notably with free-throw shooting rising to 79.1%. Head coach Greg Gard confirmed on Saturday that Austin Rapp is expected to return for this game. My model makes the Badgers 4.5-point favorites.