Dayton is 5-1-1 ATS on the road this season and this is a short line. The Rams have a good home advantage despite five losses on the season but that was early in the season. Even though they’re ranked 18th, Dayton isn’t the strongest rebounding team, especially on the road. The Flyers rely heavily on the three, shooting 40% this season, and that percentage regresses on the road and they now face a top-10 defense in defending the arc. VCU has really improved on the defensively end and are the better free throw shooting team, if it comes down to it.

Slow pace ratings for both teams, especially Dayton which ranks No. 346 in adjusted pace at KenPom, are going to produce a low total but I think style and shooting give us an edge on the over. Both teams rely on the three-pointer as a key piece of their offense and these are the top two teams in the Atlantic 10 in terms of three-point percentage in conference play. I’m also expecting the game to be a tight contest and thus we could end up seeing a good amount of free throws, which also helps since both teams are decent (Dayton) to very good (VCU) free throw shooting teams.