Neutral court game. Saint Mary’s comes getting upset by the Wildcats. On paper, the Aztecs have the better defense and Saint Mary’s have the better offense. The Gaels have struggled from the perimeter, but San Diego State struggled guarding the three-pointer. They also have a slight size advantage downlow as they’ve held their opponents to 41.8% from the floor.

There is room to wonder if the Gaels have regressed after Sunday’s shock loss at Moraga to a sneaky-good Weber State side, but WCC sources suggest that effort was probably an outlier, as SMC was cruising with an 11-point halftime lead before the lid went on the bucket in the second half. But it’s the same Gaels who punished a capable New Mexico a few nights earlier, and star soph G Aidan Mahaney is capable of much better than his 4 for 14 from the floor on Sunday. The Aztecs have a loss on their ledger, too, at BYU last week, as Mountain West insiders wonder about the adjustment minus last year’s first scoring option G Matt Bradley. Play SMC

Here's a fun under to sweat… hopefully there’s no overtime. Saint Mary's is the 4th-slowest team in the country, using 19.2 seconds of clock per possession. SDSU has played faster to start the season, but its pace should regress to the Aztecs’ norm, which was 18.5 seconds/possession (#262 nationally) during last season’s title run. Both teams rank Top-5 nationally in defensive efficiency. Both have been turnover-prone to start the season. Models make this total 127.