UAB's ultra-fast pace explains this lofty total. However, the Blazers have clamped down on defense in the NIT, allowing 59.5 ppg in two outings. Vandy's games have averaged 132 as the Commodores, though amazingly successful overall without injured big man Liam Robbins, still have taken a step back offensively. UAB has gone Under in six of the last eight. 'Dores games at home went 11-8 Under.

This is going to be an epic game. While UAB has simply wrecked every team it has faced since February, Vanderbilt has the home edge. The Commodores turned a corner in February with a 12-2 record down the stretch while mopping up the SEC. My final pick was based on my college basketball ratings, which have UAB -1 on a neutral court but Vanderbilt gets four points for the home edge. (The Commodores had 8,337 show up four nights ago to help beat Michigan.) More Vandy students will show up tonight to make for a great atmosphere. My number is Vandy -3, so I’m taking the value with the Commodores.

The Blazers cruised in their previous NIT game despite Jordan "Jelly" Walker, the nation's fourth-leading scorer, shooting 2 for 12. I like their chances to dominate the boards and beat a Vanderbilt team missing 7-footer Liam Robbins. UAB's Trey Jemison, a 6-11 senior, is coming off an 11-point, 16-rebound performance. The Blazers average 81.5 points and will be able to keep pace with the Commodores' talented shooters. Lay the small number.

Vanderbilt is lucky to be here after Michigan absolutely gagged away an eight point lead in the final two minutes on Saturday. After losing by 57 to Alabama, the Commodores have won 12 of their last 14 with only losses at LSU and to Texas A&M in the SEC Tournament. Meanwhile, UAB is 14-2 in their last 16, only losing at NIT semifinalist North Texas in double overtime and in the Conference USA Championship Game against Sweet 16 qualifier Florida Atlantic. The NET rankings have UAB 57th and Vandy 81st and KenPom has the differential 49 to 80. I'm backing the Conference USA runner up to join fellow member North Texas in the NIT's Final Four.

Yes, these teams are both Top 50 in offensive efficiency. But this total feels over-adjusted, likely for UAB’s pace of play. The Blazers’ adjusted tempo (70.6) ranks 42nd in the nation, while the Dores’ pace (67.5) is the nation’s average. Historically, Vanderbilt games against fast-paced teams have finished no where near this total. Since 2019 when Jerry Stackhouse took over the program, Vandy has played 47 games against teams with an adjusted tempo of 70 or above. The average total of those games is 146. In that same span, Vandy games are 3-5 O/U when the total is 153 or higher. It will be a higher-scoring game, but this is a stretch.