Year after year, we've seen play-in No. 11 seeds have success, but power five No. 8-9 seeds also do well. In the Round of 32, they have surprisingly thrived. Arkansas fits the mold as a young team that can play far better than its seed. Anthony Black will be a matchup nightmare for Kansas, and this contest should come down to the wire. Grab the points with Arkansas.

No Bill Self again for Kansas, but if it might almost be a distraction if he came back for this game in a quick turnaround. KU's only two losses in its past 11 are against an excellent Texas team. When the Jayhawks lost in the Big 12 Tournament to the Horns, they were without starting guard Kevin McCullar due to injury, but he's back now and dominated in the first-round rout of Howard. Presumably, it will be a massive pro-KU crowd in Des Moines. The Hogs are very athletic but are not strong shooting from deep at 31.6%. You likely aren't upsetting Kansas without a big game from behind the arc.

The Jayhawks know how to win close games. They are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a favorite of five points or less. On the other side, the Razorbacks are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games as an underdog of five points or less. The Jayhawks have been rolling as they have won 10 of their last 12 games. The Razorbacks have not had the time and health to gel together as a team. If they can play at their peak, they are a tough team to beat. However, I don't think this will be that game. The Jayhawks are too good defensively to allow the Razorbacks the time to figure it out. Lay the points with the Jayhawks.

Arkansas, a chronic underperformer this season, flashed signs of its potential against Illinois in Thursday's win. This small spread screams "overreaction." Kansas owns a steep edge in experience, which comes in handy with a quick turn-around. Kevin McCullar Jr .(back), who was iffy for the Jayhawks on Thursday, played apparently pain-free in the victory. Kansas has covered in two-thirds of its last 15 outings. The 'Hawks have managed lately without ailing head coach Bill Self; his possible return to the bench would be a bonus.