Kent State plays with an edge, and that is what cost the Golden Flashes a season ago, when four players were suspended heading into their conference title game against Akron. They’ve regrouped from that experience and should hold their own against Indiana. Look for one surge to help Kent State cover the spread.

Indiana features two NBA first-round picks in its frontcourt, but I give the backcourt edge to Kent State, led by MAC Player of the Year Sincere Carry (17.6 ppg, 4.9 apg) and Malique Jacobs (13.0 ppg). The Golden Flashes rank 19th nationally in defensive efficiency and will be very disruptive versus the Hoosiers' guards. They've covered both times this season when getting at least four points. Look for a game that goes down to the wire and back a veteran Kent State team that's won 10 of its last 11 games.

A somewhat rare playable edge on a side exists here with Indiana -4. My simulations make this spread -9.7 for the Hoosiers. This is a nice matchup for Indiana as Kent State just isn't on their level offensively. Kent State ranks outside of the top 100 in offensive efficiency, free throw attempt rate, and free throw percentage. Indiana has a sizable rebounding edge and should thrive off second chance points here whether it's naturally or at the line thanks to the Kent State defensive free throw rate falling outside the top 250! Lay it with the Hoosiers.