Houston’s Marcus Sasser is questionable for today’s contest after a groin injury yesterday. Even if he’s not 100 percent, he’ll have his hands full with Memphis’ Kendric Davis. The Tigers lost on a buzzer beater at home to the Cougars, with a healthy Sasser, a week ago and they have not forgot about it. Memphis has been more efficient, offensively, than Houston over their last three games shooting 41.8 percent from three and 87.5 percent from the free-throw line. Revenge is a factor here and while Houston is the number one team in the country, this one means more for the Tigers. I’m on Memphis.

Memphis is a fine team. The Tigers have had a good season. But Houston is Houston. The Cougars are the No.1 team in the country for a reason. My model has them winning this game in a whopping 86% of its simulations. The real value here is the spread, which we're getting at a wonderful price. Houston covers in 74% of the sims. Cougars to cover.

Yes, Houston pulled away from Cincinnati after AAC Player of the Year Marcus Sasser left with an injury. But Memphis has played the Cougars close twice -- losing by eight and two points -- when the Cougars had Sasser. With Houston having salted away a No. 1 NCAA Tournament seed, it surely will hold him out in Sunday's league finals. The door is open for another tight game -- and possibly a Tigers' straight-up win.