This is a matchup between two of the five worst teams in offensive efficiency during Big Ten conference play, plus you've got Wisconsin being one of the slowest-paced teams in the entire country and Ohio State being a team that's preferred the mid-range game and two-point scoring over 3's and free throws. The first meeting came in at 125 (65-60), and while predictive models will have this closer to 133 I think we still have value as long as the total is north of 128.

The Buckeyes went only 3-12 in road games and 4-11 ATS. Wisconsin is 5-5 SU in its last 10 games, which includes a win at Ohio State. Ohio State won two of its last three and covered the last three, but the Badgers swept Ohio State in the regular season. The Badgers should be favored. Take the value with Wisconsin and the points.

Both of these clubs have underachieved, but the Badgers still have an outside shot at an NCAA Tournament bid if they can muster a strong run in the conference tournament. They have been on the short end of breaks all season, with nine losses by five or fewer points or in overtime. This criteria includes a late-season overtime loss to Michigan and a two-point home loss to Purdue, both of which saw Wisconsin in the lead most of the way. If the Badgers play with that same sense of desperation Wednesday, they should get past the Buckeyes.

This line is so fishy that I'm going to watch the movement early on Wednesday before I decide whether to use it as one of my picks on Early Edge in 5 at 4 p.m. ET. How is a 13-18 team favored over a 17-13 team, especially one that needs to win a couple more games to potentially advance to the Big Dance? NCAA NET Rankings and KenPom probably factor into it somewhat. Ohio State hasn't won a game outside of Columbus since January 1st. Wisconsin hasn't won two in-a-row since January 3rd (and they beat Minnesota on Sunday). Something has to give. I'll ride with the more desperate team, as frustrating as they are to watch visually.