I like playing home underdogs after their opponent allowed fewer than 60 points and are playing with one day of rest. Virginia is 3-5 against-the-spread after allowing fewer than 60 points. Virginia has won six in a row, a streak that started against the Orange three weeks ago. Syracuse is 3-1 ATS when revenging a road loss this season, and 3-0 ATS after allowing 80-plus points. Joe Girard had one of his worst shooting performances of the season on Saturday and should bounce back with a big effort tonight. I'm on the Orange.

Perception can be really impactful when it comes to Virginia totals, and the Wahoos ranked No. 360 out of 363 in adjusted tempo and boast a top-25 defense that's held 16 straight opponents under 70 points. But UVA has quietly been cashing overs here in recent conference play, and it's running up against a Syracuse team that's been an over machine. Virginia's last 8 games are 6-2 to the over and Syracuse's last 10 games are 9-1 to the over. The Orange have struggled keeping other teams off the offensive glass and those extra possessions allow for more points, which certainly hurt Syracuse’s chances to win but help our odds of hitting the over.

Virginia is certainly the better team and beat visiting Syracuse by seven earlier this season, but the Wahoos are 2-4 ATS on the road, and SU is 9-4 SU (pun intended) and 8-5 ATS at home. Coach Jim Boeheim's team was shaky early on at the Carrier Dome (not sure what it's called now and don't care) but is 7-2 SU in the past nine there -- and those losses were by four to North Carolina and by two to Pittsburgh. This should be very low scoring and close. The SL Model has Cuse winning by a point. That would not surprise me.