Was hoping this got to +6.5 like it has at a few books. Guess not. I believe the reason I was the top NCAA hoops capper here the past two seasons was all the homework I do. Check 5-6 models, betting trends, player injury news and game notes of both teams. Worked well. I can't explain this year so far, but I am getting some terrible luck. Last night for example: I faded Robert Morris because arguably its best player was expected to sit. He started and dominated. The Colonials won and I highly doubt they do otherwise. I backed CS Fullerton because it best player was back from injury. He left injured and the Titans failed to cover by 2 points. Stuff like this continues to happen. Confident full conference play will turn things around. As for this one, an obvious gap in talent, but the Heels have been very inconsistent and are just 4-9 ATS and 0-2 ATS in true road games. It should be a rare sellout and major home-court advantage for Pittsburgh, which is much improved from last season and 9-3-1 ATS.

Pittsburgh has really turned their season around. They're shooting the ball effectively at home at 52.1 percent and 32.3 percent from beyond the arc. The Panthers have also been a lot better on defensive with a top-100 team in defensive efficiency. They hold their opponents to 28.9 percent from beyond the arc as well. North Carolina has lost their two true road games and while the Pitt environment isn't what is used to be, it can still be a tough place to play. The Tar Heels have the edge down-low offensively with Bacot, but the Panthers should be ready for the test. I'm on Pittsburgh.