Texas has been up and down all season and one of the most frustrating teams to bet on. I think they're very susceptible to struggle against Purdue who feature Zach Edey. The 7'4" center makes Purdue one of the most effective offenses in the nation and locks down rebounding. It's no surprise that Purdue ranks among the top 25 rebounding teams. I think this is a great spot for a Texas let down. I'm on the Boilermakers to cover.

Purdue was my original pick to reach the Final Four out of the East Region only to change my mind at the last minute and pick Kentucky. Oops. Purdue's big three of Jaden Ivey, Zach Edey and Trevion Williams combined for 46 points, 23 rebounds and six assists in an easy Round 1 win over Yale. There may not be a better trio. Purdue is 25-0 when scoring 70 or more points this season, and I think it gets there against a UT team that allowed 73 in Round 1 to Virginia Tech.

Purdue has covered just once in its last 11 games, and that was against Yale on Friday. Texas has a similar problem, going 1-6 ATS in its last seven. The Longhorns' win against Virginia Tech on Friday was their first cover in their last 11 NCAA Tournament games. Texas also has failed to cover its last four contests following a win. I bet the better shooting team, and that’s Purdue (49.7 percent). Expect the Boilermakers to cover.

Fading the Boilermakers in this spot. In recent years, teams with great offenses and bad defenses tend to lose in March. The Hawkeyes are a great example of this as Kenpom ranks them third in offensive efficiency and 76th in defensive efficiency. Kenpom ranks the Boilermakers second in offensive efficiency and 90th in defensive efficiency. The Longhorns are a very good team on both sides of the ball. Their defense should be the difference in this game. The Longhorns should be favored in this game.

I faded Texas versus Virginia Tech, but the Longhorns broke out of their late-season funk in an 81-73 win. All five Texas starters played well. Now the Longhorns have renewed confidence, and they will definitely have the coaching edge with Chris Beard (11-4 in the NCAA Tournament, including 2-0 versus Matt Painter). Purdue is explosive offensively but mediocre defensively. Look for Marcus Carr and Andrew Jones (13 of 22 from the field combined vs. Virginia Tech) to again excel as the Longhorns take this one to the wire.