With both these teams ranking in the top 10 of defensive efficiency I immediately lean towards the four points have more value than anticipated because the game is likely to be a bit slower. ISU is 8-5 ATS as a road underdog and LSU is 3-5 ATS as a road favorite. This should be a battle and I'll grab the side with the free possession. LSU is a bit inexperienced too and young teams sometimes struggle in March. Here's an extra nugget; when the spread is +2 to +6 Iowa State is 6-1 ATS, and LSU has never won a spread when favored by between 2 and 6. Let's go Cyclones!

I simply don't think Iowa State is very good as evidenced by the Cyclones' season-ending three-game skid and 31-point wipeout vs. Texas Tech in the Big 12 Tournament. LSU isn't exactly a Final Four team but has way more talent and might actually be energized by the coaching change -- think Michigan in 1989.

The more I dig on this game the better I like the chances of it being decided on the final possession, so there's plenty of value on the underdog. Both teams have top-10 defensive efficiency ratings at KenPom and while Iowa State buckled a little bit in February and March losing 7 of 11, LSU did just fire its coach. Acknowledging Wade's absence is priced in, the edge really comes from Iowa State having the best player on the floor in Izaiah Brockington. The first team All-Big 12 selection and Big 12 Newcomer of the Year is the one player I trust to be able to get buckets or create offense in those tense final possessions between two good defensive teams.