Saint Peter's brings a legitimate defense (35th in efficiency, per KenPom) that's allowed an average of 51.7 points during its seven-game win streak. The Peacocks have covered 11 of their last 13 neutral-site games, while Kentucky is 1-5 ATS in its last six at neutral sites. The Wildcats likely win by double digits, but this is too many points.

Saint Peter’s has won and covered its last seven games with a tenacious defense that has been turned up a notch as the games' importance intensified down the stretch. On the season, the Peacocks allow only 38 percent shooting, 31 percent over the last seven games. Kentucky has the size and a substantial rebounding edge, but the spread is four points too high in my estimation.

Saint Peter's ranks No. 259 in offensive efficiency, but its defense ranks No. 34 and the team plays at a very methodical pace. Kentucky's offense is solid, but I expect Saint Peter's to give the Wildcats some resistance. In the end the Peacocks' lack of offense will keep this total low. Plus, with Kentucky winning big, we will not see the end-of-game fouling that often sends a game Over. Under is the play.