Reality has to catch up to Providence at some point, right? The Friars have spent all season overperforming their numbers, and their defense will be tested against an exciting South Dakota State offense. The Jackrabbits are the best three-point shooting team in the country at 44.2% and love to get out in transition. It's a style the Friars don't see a lot of in the Big East, and I think it will cause them problems.

Look, I get why South Dakota State is a popular pick here as the Jackrabbits are an amazing offensive team and haven't lost since Dec. 15. But who have they beaten all season? Exactly. Providence looked awful in its Big East Tournament loss to Creighton, but it was the regular-season champion for a reason and has many wins over quality opponents. It should be a huge pro-Friars crowd in Buffalo as well.

This isn't about how "lucky" Providence has been, because the Friars deserve full credit for winning close games en route to the Big East regular-season title. This is about a Jackrabbits team that's reminiscent of last year's Oral Roberts. South Dakota State shoots a nation-best 44.9 percent from beyond the arc, has won 21 straight and features the Summit Player of the Year in Baylor Scheierman. He was the only Division I player to lead his conference in both rebounding (7.8) and assists (4.6). And he averaged 16.2 points on 51.2 percent shooting. South Dakota State leads the nation in effective field-goal percentage and ranks 12th in offensive efficiency, per KenPom. Take the points.