If you are going to play Marquette and that Havoc pressure defense, it's a huge advantage to have a few days to prepare for it as opposed to a quick turnaround game in the second round. I think North Carolina is the better team regardless but that the Heels had all week to prepare is a plus. The Golden Eagles were just 4-6 in their final 10 games. They will get destroyed on the boards by Heels double-double machine Armando Bacot.

The Golden Eagles rode their hot start to make the tournament. They have been terrible recently. They are just 3-5 SU and 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games. The Tar Heels have been playing great as they are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games. I am surprised that this spread is so low given how these teams are trending. The Tar Heels are going to dominate this game on the glass and easily cover this spread.

The Tar Heels are explosive offensively, but Marquette is uniquely suited to defend them. The Golden Eagles held Big East opponents to 31.1 percent from beyond the arc and all opponents to 53 percent on attempts at the rim (29th nationally). Marquette finished on a downer, but this is the same team that knocked off Illinois, Villanova (twice) and Providence. UNC has few signature wins, a first-year coach, and a ton of expectations to deal with. Take the points.

The Tar Heels know they are at their best when they set a fast pace, and they will against the Golden Eagles. But how this game gets Over the total is if Marquette participates. North Carolina was forced to slow down in its last two games, a win against Virginia and a loss to Virginia Tech, so it's ready to let loose, and I think the Golden Eagles will welcome a fast pace as well. In fact, I think Marquette will instigate it. The Over is the top play.