Last time I looked at Creighton, I faded the Bluejays vs. Marquette because of the season-ending injury to starting point guard Ryan Nembhard. Creighton won anyways, but Marquette as shown today vs. North Carolina stinks. San Diego State does not, and yes I'm well aware the Mountain West has been hot trash so far (guessing that will be used as a motivational ploy by Aztecs coach Brian Dutcher). SDSU's defense is great and forces so many turnovers that I have to believe no Nembhard is the difference here. The Aztecs turn teams over at the 29th-highest rate in the country, while Creighton is among the worst in offensive turnover rate. The late sharp action has been on SDSU.

A late add to the card after seeing the performance from Mountain West teams so far in this tournament. On the Early Edge I mentioned the lean of taking the under here, as Creighton has resorted to being a defense-first team since losing starting freshman guard Ryan Nembhard to a season-ending injury on Feb. 23. I still think this is a low-scoring grinder of a game because of the styles, but after watching Wyoming, Colorado State and Boise State all not only lose but fail to cover the spread there could be some value in fading inflated numbers from the MW.

There are 68 teams that were chosen for the tournament, and of those 68, the offensive efficiencies of Creighton and San Diego State rank 58th and 63rd respectively. Do not expect many points in this one. Instead, expect a slow, ugly, creeping death of a basketball game in which neither team will be able to pull away from the other, and is likely to end with Creighton's size being a little too much for the Aztecs. Plus, Creighton's the better free-throw shooting team, and in spots like this, that can make all the difference.

The average team from the Big East is about 5 points better than the average team from the Mountain West. That's a decent gap, and competition during the season matters. In the last month SDST has only played 3 teams inside the top 50, Creighton has played 7. I watched Creighton beat Marquette in person, and the next day they trounced Providence. Losing the final to Villanova is nothing to be ashamed of. This Creighton team will challenge the Aztecs and keep it close in a defensive showdown. Take the points.