Despite the strong case Chip Patterson made for Texas on this morning's Early Edge, I believe Baylor's matchup advantages outweigh the emotional impact of Texas' final game at the Erwin Center. The Bears have won five straight in the series, including 80-63 just over two weeks ago. L.J. Cryer (13.5 ppg) did not play in the first meeting, and he's a gametime decision tonight with his foot injury. Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua, who's out for the season, played just five minutes that night before suffering a season-ending knee injury. Back the Bears to beat Texas for the sixth straight time.

Baylor picked up one of its best wins of the season coming back from a 13-point deficit to beat Kansas handily at home, proving that it can overcome the many injuries that have plagued the Bears all season. But there's an opportunity for a letdown and the larger trends still point towards Baylor falling short of their number. The Bears have failed to cover in 4 of their last 5 road games and 6 of their last 9 overall, and while Texas has its own ATS woes recently I think they can steal a win on Senior Night against the in-state rival.

All three of Baylor's road losses have come in its last nine games, but I just saw the Bears bury Texas, 80-63, 16 days ago in Waco. The Longhorns are 3-6 against ranked teams and haven’t covered the number in their last three games. Baylor has won its last three and come off an 80-70 win against Kansas in which the Jayhawks made only 24-of-70 shots (34.3 percent). Baylor to win on the moneyline.

Even with their elite defense, the Over has cashed in five of the Longhorns last six games, including a game against the Bears that went over the total by 12 points. The Bears offense was able to do whatever they wanted against the number five scoring defense and they should be able to do that again. I am expecting both offenses to be able to put up points and for this game to explode over the total.