I've joked with some of you on Twitter that when more than two SL experts are on the same side in any game, it's usually a loser. However, now that this is up to Troy +7.5, I have to grab it. You should never take a team's overall record at face value because non-conference schedules are very different. Georgia State probably is the better team with an 8-9 mark compared to Troy's 14-7 record. But GSU is 1-5 ATS in its past six as a favorite and 2-9 ATS in its past 11 overall. It has four true home wins and three are against non-DI schools.

Interesting number here as Troy is 14-7 and 5-3 in Sun Belt action, and Georgia State is 8-9 and 2-4, respectively, yet the Panthers are giving 7.5. They are 1-6 ATS in their past seven vs. teams with a winning record and have dropped their past three at home.

My model is projecting this as a 2.5 point loss for Troy so I’ll grab the four point edge on the underdog. Georgia State has won and covered both their last two games but prior to that they were just 2-10 ATS, I think they’re due for a home let down against against a 14-7 Troy team that has covered 7 of 11 games on the road. This is the smallest spread between these teams in the last few years for a reason, this is a solid Troy squad. I’m taking the points.