Not having Roman Penn really hurts Drake, but the reality is that they have adjusted to life without their star guard. I had Drake as a sleeper Final Four team in December after calling a few of its games. That is not going to happen, but I love the Bulldogs' basketball IQ and their stingy defense. This is going to be a grind, but that's what Drake wants. It beat Loyola 51-50 in overtime this season! Go Bulldogs!

ShanQuan "Tank" Hemphill returns for Drake after he missed the last nine games, and he could be a step slow in his first game back. The Bulldogs are still without injured point guard Roman Penn, which is a five-point drop-off. Drake did beat Loyola (Chicago) in overtime by one point at home. The Bulldogs' other best win was over Missouri State, the 88th best team in the country. Wichita State beat Houston at home, beat Mississippi on the road and only lost by seven at Houston. Even with Hemphill back, my model has Wichita State by 4.5.

I'll agree with Larry Hartstein and Micah Roberts now that Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports is reporting that Drake star ShanQuan Hemphill (foot) "is on track to play" in the First Four. He led the team in scoring (14.1 ppg) and rebounding (6.3 rpg) this season. Drake lost four times all year and Hemphill missed three of those.

I was leaning Drake from the moment I saw the matchup and then I heard a rumor that leading scorer Tank Hemphill might be back. He had foot surgery on Feb. 11, so he’s probably not going to play. But maybe he’s an inspiration boost by just being in uniform. Drake is a polished squad even without Hemphill, shooting 49.8% from selective text-book shots. Disciplined. The Bulldogs went 20-6-1 ATS. An 11 seed, right. It’s an upperclassmen-led squad, they have the moment. Drake is the better team, I bet the Bulldogs.

Drake played its final seven games without leading scorer ShanQuan Hemphill (14.1 ppg, 6.3 rpg) due to a foot injury. He's expected back for the NCAA Tournament. The Bulldogs still went 5-2 without him. Wichita State put together a remarkable season but was nothing close to dominant; the Shockers beat South Florida by one, UFC by one, Temple by three, Tulsa by four and so on. They got knocked out of the AAC Tournament by Cincinnati. Back the Bulldogs to improve to 21-6 ATS.