This is going to be a great year for Illinois basketball, but I like Baylor in this neutral court matchup. My simulations make the Bears -6.2 points better in this situation thanks to the Jared Butler and MaCio Teague backcourt duo. I like the market signals that agree with my simulations as 51 percent of tickets are on Illinois, but 60 percent of the money is on Baylor. Lay it.

It's the AP No. 5 and No. 2 from Indianapolis and first-ever Top-5 matchup for Baylor in non-conference play or at a neutral site. Bears coach Scott Drew brought back four All-Big 12 players from a 2019-20 team that was 26-4 and spent multiple weeks ranked No. 1. This will be Drew's season debut after missing the first two games due to COVID-19. Illinois is a great team, too, but has played a very weak schedule thus far and nearly lost last time out to Ohio. I do think this spread is a bit too high with oddsmakers and some bettors overreacting to that Ohio two-point escape (Illinois likely looking ahead). Thus, we'll take the points as the SportsLine Projection Model actually has the Illini winning by one.