Throw out all of the records, stats and history when Duke and North Carolina play. North Carolina's season has been one of the worst in Roy Williams career, however the Tar Heels are finally starting to show improvement. UNC has covered four of its last five, but again, none of that matters. With Cole Anthony back in the lineup, the Tar Heels are at full strength and will leave every ounce of energy on the floor today. Forget about the rankings take Carolina with the points at home.

My model says Duke covers in almost 70 percent of simulations, so you're getting solid value with the Blue Devils. Duke is in the thick of the ACC chase while North Carolina is in the midst of a forgettable season. My model projects a 15-point Duke win.

North Carolina (10-12) has been a train wreck this season and has lost seven of its last nine games. Even the motivation of upsetting rival Duke is not enough to turn things around for the Tar Heels. The Blue Devils have won four straight, including two straight on the road, and need a win to keep pace with Louisville in the ACC. Take Duke.